Why Relying Only on Market Comps in Valuation is a Bad Idea
If you pick up a business appraisal report you are very likely to run across the market comparables or comps used in value analysis. In essence, the comps let you compare the target business to similar businesses that have been sold recently. Clearly this method has its merits, yet relying solely on market comps can be unwise for several reasons. To obtain a more accurate and comprehensive valuation, you should also consider methods such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Capitalized Earnings under the income approach.
Combining business valuation methods is the best practice for business valuation supported by professional appraisal standards. That is why ValuAdder Business Valuation Tools offers all of these methods in one software package.
Benefits of Market Comparables
Ease of Use
Valuation multiples derived from market comps let you determine business value by simple multiplication of your company’s financial performance metrics, such as income and asset base. No complex analysis or sophisticated math is needed, and the results are quick and straightforward.
Direct Market Comparison
The market is the ultimate judge of business value. Hence, comparing your company with industry peers that have actually sold offers compelling evidence of what your company might be worth if put on the market.
Limitations of Market Comparables
Market Participant Sentiment
Market comps are highly dependent on current sentiment among business investors, buyers, and sellers, which can fluctuate significantly. During a boom, valuations might be inflated, while during a downturn, they might be undervalued. This volatility makes it difficult to derive a consistent and reliable valuation.
Lack of Comparable Businesses
Finding truly comparable businesses can be challenging. Every business is unique in terms of its size, market position, customer base, and operational efficiency. Differences in these factors can lead to inaccurate valuations that rely only on market comps.
Data Quality and Availability
The quality and availability of data on comparable transactions can vary. Often, detailed information about private business sale transactions is not publicly accessible. As a result, you may be missing important information leading to potential gaps in your analysis.
Ignoring Company Specific Factors
Market comps focus on external market data and often ignore the specific internal factors that drive value of the target business. Examples are the management team quality, operational processes, and unique growth opportunities.
Income based methods to the rescue
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
The DCF method requires projecting the future cash flows of the business and discounting them back to their present value using a discount rate. This method offers you several advantages:
- Future potential. DCF focuses on the future earning potential of the business, providing a forward-looking valuation rather than one based solely on past performance.
- Accounting for business specifics. It takes into account the specific financial strength and growth prospects of the business. As a result, it produces a highly focused valuation reflecting the unique value drivers of the company that set it apart from the competition.
- Comprehensive analysis. DCF requires a thorough analysis of the business’s financials, including revenue projections, expense forecasts, and capital expenditures, leading to a more detailed and accurate valuation.
The Role of Capitalized Earnings
The capitalized earnings method involves estimating the business’s sustainable earnings and dividing them by a capitalization rate that reflects the company’s risk. Its benefits include:
- Earnings stability. This method is particularly useful for businesses with stable and predictable earnings, providing a straightforward and reliable valuation.
- Risk assessment. By applying the capitalization rate, the method allows for a direct assessment of risk.
- Simplicity. It offers a simpler alternative to DCF, especially for businesses with more predictable earnings.
Use multiple methods to get the job done
Market comparables can provide a useful benchmark. But relying on them exclusively for business valuation can be unwise due to the influence of market participant sentiment, the challenge of finding relevant comparables, available data limitations, and the neglect of company specific value drivers.
If you want a more accurate and defensible assessment of a business’s value, consider incorporating methods like Discounted Cash Flow and Capitalized Earnings into your valuation. These techniques offer a deeper insight into the future earning potential and risk profile of the business, leading to a comprehensive valuation.
ValuAdder Business Valuation Tools offers all of these methods in one software package.